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Why do most Pump.fun tokens fail?
Only 1.4% of tokens launched on pump.fun ever graduate to a real exchange like Raydium, according to Dune Analytics data cited by Bitget, and most of those still fail afterward. A separate Solidus Labs report found 98.6% of the platform's tokens show rug pull or pump-and-dump patterns.
Last updated: September 14, 2026
What percentage of Pump.fun tokens actually succeed?
Barely one in a hundred.
Dune Analytics data cited by Bitget puts the graduation rate, the share of tokens that reach a real decentralized exchange like Raydium, at just 1.4%, a figure that has held roughly flat between 1.2% and 1.4% since May 2024.
Solana Compass reported a single day with 42,000 new token launches on the platform, of which fewer than 2% would ever reach a DEX. The overwhelming majority of tokens never leave the bonding curve stage at all.
Why do so few tokens graduate?
Graduation happens when a token’s bonding curve reaches roughly $69,000 in market cap, and reaching that threshold requires sustained buy pressure that most tokens simply never attract.
With tens of thousands of new tokens launching daily, attention is the scarcest resource on the platform, and a token that doesn’t catch a wave of buyers in its first hours usually never will.
The tokens that do graduate are the small minority that caught enough early momentum before the market’s attention moved to the next launch.
What happens to tokens that never graduate?
They sit with minimal liquidity and eventually stop trading entirely, which is functionally the same outcome as a failed launch even without a dramatic rug pull.
In 2024, ChainCatcher’s coverage of the Dune data notes that of roughly 1.8 million tokens deployed, only 100 to 200 graduate in a typical month, and only 96 tokens across the platform’s history, at the time, have ever exceeded $1 million in market cap.
Most tokens don’t fail dramatically; they simply never attract enough buyers to matter.
Do graduated tokens actually survive long term?
Not reliably, and this is the part that surprises people who assume graduation means safety.
A Solidus Labs report covered by CoinDesk found that 93% of liquidity pools on Raydium tied to pump.fun tokens showed soft rug pull characteristics, with a median pool value of just $2,800.
Reaching a real exchange is a milestone, not a guarantee that the liquidity behind the token is real or that it will stay there.
How much money do most traders actually make?
Very little, even among people actively trading on the platform.
The table below lines up the key numbers from the Dune Analytics dataset.
| Metric | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Graduation rate (bonding curve to Raydium) | 1.4% | Dune Analytics / Bitget |
| Tokens exceeding $1M market cap (all time) | 96 tokens | Dune Analytics / ChainCatcher |
| Users earning $1,000+ profit | ~3% | Dune Analytics / Bitget |
| Users earning $1,000,000+ profit | 0.0028% | Dune Analytics / Bitget |
| Tokens showing rug pull patterns | 98.6% | Solidus Labs / CoinDesk |
| Raydium pools with soft rug characteristics | 93% | Solidus Labs / CoinDesk |
So what does this mean for anyone trading on Pump.fun?
The math is closer to a lottery than an investment, and the platform’s own numbers make that explicit rather than hidden.
A token graduating is not a signal of safety on its own, since the majority of graduated pools still show fraud characteristics on closer inspection.
Anyone trading on the platform should treat contract address verification and a liquidity check as the minimum bar before buying, and running through a rug pull red flags checklist before every trade catches most of the patterns the data above describes.
Oliver Cade is Head of Growth at Trenchbook, where he covers on-chain trading mechanics and market structure. Find him on X at @oliver_lad.
NFA: This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Token success rates, liquidity, and fraud patterns change constantly. Verify everything independently before trading.
Questions
What percentage of Pump.fun tokens actually succeed?
Only about 1.4% of tokens launched on pump.fun graduate to a real decentralized exchange like Raydium, according to Dune Analytics data, and the rate has stayed roughly flat between 1.2% and 1.4% since May 2024.
Why do so few Pump.fun tokens graduate?
Graduation requires a token's bonding curve to reach roughly $69,000 in market cap, and the vast majority never attract enough sustained buy pressure to get there before interest moves to the next new launch.
Do tokens that graduate to Raydium usually succeed long term?
Not reliably. A Solidus Labs report found 93% of liquidity pools on Raydium tied to pump.fun tokens showed soft rug pull characteristics, with a median pool value of just $2,800.
How much money do most Pump.fun traders actually make?
Very little. Dune Analytics data cited by Bitget found only about 3% of pump.fun users ever earned more than $1,000 in total profit, and just 0.0028% earned $1,000,000 or more.
Is Pump.fun mostly used for scams?
A Solidus Labs report covered by CoinDesk found that 98.6% of the more than 7 million tokens launched on pump.fun since January 2024 showed rug pull or pump-and-dump patterns, though the platform itself is a launch tool rather than a scam by design.
The booking details for this shape are at /read-kol-calls.
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